DAVE BONAN

Peer-Reviewed 

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2025

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• D.B. Bonan, A.F. Thompson, T. Schneider, L. Zanna, K.C. Armour, and S. Sun (2025): Observational constraints imply limited future Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening. Nature Geoscience, xx (x), xxxx-xxxx. doi: 10.1038/S41561-025-01709-0 [ preprint ]

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• D.B. Bonan, J.E. Kay, N. Feldl, and M.D. Zelinka (2025): Mid-latitude clouds contribute to Arctic amplification via interactions with other climate feedbacks. Environmental Research: Climate, 4 (1), 015001. doi: 10.1088/2752-5295/ADA84B [ pdf ]  

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2024​​

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• R.N. Patel, D.B. Bonan, and T. Schneider (2024): Changes in the frequency of observed temperature extremes largely driven by a distribution shift. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (24), e2024GL110707. doi: 10.1029/2024GL110707 [ pdf ] [ supplement ] 

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• D.B. Bonan, T. Schneider, and J. Zhu (2024): Precipitation over a wide range of climates simulated with comprehensive GCMs. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (16), e2024GL109892. doi: 10.1029/2024GL109892 [ pdf ] [ supplement ]

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• M.S. Nayak, D.B. Bonan, E.R. Newsom, and A.F. Thompson (2024): Controls on the strength and structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (11), e2024GL109055. doi: 10.1029/2024GL109055 [ pdf ]

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• ​D.B. Bonan, J. Dörr, R.C.J. Wills, A.F. Thompson, and M. Årthun (2024): Sources of low-frequency variability in observed Antarctic sea ice. The Cryosphere, 18 (4), 2141-2159. doi: 10.5194/TC-18-2141-2024 [ pdf ] 

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• D.B. Bonan, N. Feldl, N. Siler, J.E. Kay, K.C. Armour, I. Eisenman, and G.H. Roe (2024): The influence of climate feedbacks on regional hydrological changes under global warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (3), e2023GL106648. doi: 10.1029/2023GL106648 [ pdf ] [ supplement ]

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2023

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• Y. Dong, L.M. Polvani, and D.B. Bonan (2023): Recent multi-decadal Southern Ocean surface cooling unlikely caused by Southern Annular Mode trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (23), e2023GL106142. doi: 10.1029/2023GL106142 [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight ]

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• N. Siler, D.B. Bonan, and A. Donohoe (2023): Diagnosing mechanisms of hydrologic change under global warming in the CESM1 Large Ensemble. Journal of Climate, 36 (23), 8243-8257. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0086.1 [ pdf ] [ supplement ]
   

• J. Dörr, D.B. Bonan, M. Årthun, L. Svendsen, and R.C.J. Wills (2023): Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes. The Cryosphere, 17 (9), 4133-4153. doi: 10.5194/TC-17-4133-2023 [ pdf ]

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• E.A. Wilson, D.B. Bonan, A.F. Thompson, N. Armstrong, and S.C. Riser (2023): Mechanisms for abrupt summertime circumpolar surface warming in the Southern Ocean. Journal of Climate, 36 (20), 7025-7039. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0501.1 [ pdf ]

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• ​D.B. Bonan, N. Feldl, M.D. Zelinka, and L.C. Hahn (2023): Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming. Environmental Research: Climate, 2 (3), 035010. doi: 10.1088/2752-5295/ACE27A  [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight ]

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• D.B. Bonan, N. Siler, G.H. Roe, and K.C. Armour (2023): Energetic constraints on the pattern of changes to the hydrological cycle under global warming. Journal of Climate, 36 (10), 3499-3522.  doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0337.1  [ pdf ]

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2022

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• D.B. Bonan, A.F. Thompson, E.R. Newsom, S. Sun, and M. Rugenstein (2022): Transient and equilibrium responses of the Atlantic overturning circulation to warming in coupled climate models: the role of temperature and salinity. Journal of Climate, 35 (15), 5173-5193. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0912.1  [ pdf ] 

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2021

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• D.B. Bonan, T. Schneider, I. Eisenman, and R.C.J. Wills (2021): Constraining the date of a seasonally ice-free Arctic using a simple model. Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (18), e2021GL094309. doi: 10.1029/2020GL094309 [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight , research highlight ] 

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• D.B. Bonan, F. Lehner, and M.M. Holland (2021): Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice. Environmental Research Letters, 16 (4), 044002. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ABE0EC [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight ]

 

2020

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• M. Bushuk, M. Winton, D.B. Bonan, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, and T. Delworth (2020): A mechanism for the Arctic sea ice spring predictability barrier. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (13), e2020GL088335. doi: 10.1029/2020GL088335 [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight ,  news piece ]

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• D.B. Bonan and E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth (2020): Nonstationary teleconnection between the Pacific Ocean and Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (2), e2019GL085666. doi: 10.1029/2019GL085666 [ pdf ] [ supplement ] 

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2019

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• ​D.B. Bonan, J.E. Christian, and K. Christianson (2019): Influence of North Atlantic climate variability on glacier mass balance in Norway, Sweden and Svalbard. Journal of Glaciology, 65 (252), 580-594. doi: 10.1017/JOG.2019.35 [ pdf ] [ supplement ]

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• ​D.B. Bonan, M. Bushuk, and M. Winton (2019): A spring barrier for regional predictions of summer Arctic sea ice. Geophysical Research Letters, 46 (11), 5937-5947. doi: 10.1029/2019GL082947 [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight ,  research highlight , news piece ]

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2018

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• D.B. Bonan, K.C. Armour, G.H. Roe, N. Siler, and N. Feldl (2018): Sources of uncertainty in the meridional pattern of climate change.​ Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (17), 9131-9140. doi: 10.1029/2018GL079429 [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight , research highlight ]

 

Non-refereed

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• D.B. Bonan (2025): Explications of a changing climate. Ph.D.  Dissertation. California Institute of Technology. doi: 10.7907/AFB5-NS06 [ pdf ]